A Dark Day for Magic

[Mooseman]

That was my point. It's cause-effect. The value of rares goes down because there are more of a specific rare available compared to the number of mystic rares available.

I don't think that will be as big factor..... Take a look at Morningtide...
50 rares - so there would be 6 Mythic Rares (using the 8:1)
After the top 6 cards, the rest can't drop that much in price... a $2.00 card will not suddenly become a $0.01 card..... most rares will hover around the $1.00 value.... So if the top 6 rares even just double in price ($60 to $120) then the other rares will have to lose over $1.00 in value each, right now their value is just $30.00.

Here are the avg value of the rares (Prices are averages of cards recently sold on eBay)
Mutavault 19.24
Bitterblossom 15.00
Chameleon Colossus 10.00
Murmuring Bosk 5.54
Countryside Crusher 5.50
Reveillark 4.38
Kinsbaile Borderguard 2.54
Taurean Mauler 2.15
Grimoire Thief 2.08
Door of Destinies 1.77
Primal Beyond 1.51
Leaf-Crowned Elder 1.48
Idyllic Tutor 1.38
Vendilion Clique 1.33
Preeminent Captain 1.25
Earwig Squad 1.24
Mind Shatter 0.85
Rhys the Exiled 0.79
Lightning Crafter 0.72
Greatbow Doyen 0.59
Maralen of the Mornsong 0.58
Unstoppable Ash 0.57
Declaration of Naught 0.52
Sensation Gorger 0.49
Cream of the Crop 0.48
Stenchskipper 0.48
Rustic Clachan 0.46
Scapeshift 0.45
Shared Animosity 0.45
Supreme Exemplar 0.44
Kinsbaile Cavalier 0.43
Slithermuse 0.43
Indomitable Ancients 0.42
Auntie's Snitch 0.39
Weirding Shaman 0.39
Borderland Behemoth 0.37
Mind Spring 0.37
Notorious Throng 0.34
Gilt-Leaf Archdruid 0.29
Knowledge Exploitation 0.28
Reach of Branches 0.28
Sigil Tracer 0.26
Boldwyr Heavyweights 0.25
Feudkiller's Verdict 0.25
Vengeful Firebrand 0.25
Battletide Alchemist 0.24
Scarblade Elite 0.23
Titan's Revenge 0.23
Stonehewer Giant 0.18
Fendeep Summoner 0.01

 

[EricBess]

You may be right Mooseman - time will tell.

Dispite what Mark said in his article, however, this is the first time that Magic Rares have been this hard to get. Any other rares that were 1 in 120 packs had already been printed elsewhere.

 

[Mooseman]

Well I guess then if the mythic rares increase in value beyond what the other rares can lose value, the boxes/packs will become more valuable....... so they sell more boxes/packs?

I did look into buying a complete set of Morningtide:
4x of U and C = $20.00 avg on ebay
4x of R = $360.60 avg on ebay
total playset = $380.60
Starcity games price for playset = $499.99
Avg booster box = $87.00 w/shipping

So, if it takes more than 4 boxes and 14 packs to get a complete play set, buying them through ebay would be cheaper..

now increase the rare values by 2x or 3x and the number of boxes to make a complete play set goes up by 1 or 2.

This should increase primary sales....... hmmmmmmmm...... isn't that what they want to do?

 

[BigBlue]

You're making one assumption - that your only source for your playset is boxes (because the chase rare is expensive)...

If you purchase 4 boxes - you will be able to sell playsets of commons and additional rares... it all depends... so, factor those sales in, and the cost comes down a bit...

 

[Shabbaman]

That was my point. It's cause-effect. The value of rares goes down because there are more of a specific rare available compared to the number of mystic rares available.

I think we agree, then.

I think you said that.

Yes. It's the conclusion from the article I linked to.

To be technical, it's not the "supply" that increases, it's the "availability". Since you have a set group that wants the cards, the price will tend to settle right around where just enough peple are willing to pay that price for the number of that card that is available.

There will be more normal rares on the market if people would want the mythic rares in the same quantities as they want playsets of rares now. There will be more cards on the market.

If you refer that the group will pay a certain amount of money for their tournament deck, well, dunno. That would require a very detailed analysis on average deck costs and number of tournament players and whatnot. I might or might not have read something on that some months ago, I'll see if I can find it. But generally speaking I think tournament players have a bigger wallet than the total worth of their current deck.

 

[Ransac]

Any other rares that were 1 in 120 packs had already been printed elsewhere.

True, but you're not decreasing the odds by much more than the way rares used to be divvied out (110 rares per set). 1:110 to 1:120? Yeah, they'll be a bit rarer, but not by much.


Ransac, cpa trash man

 

[EricBess]

But there is something that will make a difference over those.

If there are 110 rares in a set, then if I am very lucky and purchase 110 packs, I might be missing 5 card from the set (note, I said "very lucky", realistically you will have far more duplicates). If the only thing I am interested in doing is completing a set, then I'm far more likely to purchase those 5 cards as singles than to purchase more packs.

Now, add mystic rares to the mix. On average, by the time you have 4 of each rare, you will have 2 of each mystic rare. With 30 cards left to collect for a playset, are you going to keep busting packs, knowing that only 1 in 8 packs even has a chance of not giving you a duplicate? No, you are far more likely to buy singles to get those "last few" cards.

That is something that has never happened before with Magic.

 

[Ransac]

We shall see. If were talking about "luck," then we have to assume that there will be as many unlucky boxes with only 2 rares as there will be lucky boxes that have 6 rares.

If there is an surge in price, it should drop back down within a few months.

Ransac, cpa trash man

 

[Mooseman]

That is something that has never happened before with Magic.

Really? I know people who do that all the time.... they open 2 or 3 boxes of boosters and then just buy the rares they are missing... it's usually 3 to 5, but they are just trying to get a complete set, not a complete play set....

Where is the 100 rares per set number coming from? I believe that the expansions have only about 50 rares per set.

 

[BigBlue]

The height of value on a chase rare is early on... because there aren't as many on the open market...

After a set has been out a while, the averages make more of them available (because more boxes have been opened etc), so the values should drop a bit - they also drop a bit as time goes on because people find NEW hot cards... it's when the card has a high value to legacy players as well that it retains it's value and appreciates with time due to "true" rarity (rare because cards have been lost/damaged over time and are out of print - see Mox) Of course, if a new use is discovered later, a card can spike later in it's life cycle as well...

The "average" rare should follow a similar pattern...