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DarthFerret
Guest
I actually have a deck that is composed entirely of foils (land too). I call it the pretty deck, and with my limited supply of foils it does surprisingly well.
Shabbaman
insert avatar here
That's a pro magic nerd.
I just read a very nice article on mythic rares. I encourage you to read it. Of course you probably won't, so I'll just copy paste the juicy bit:
I just read a very nice article on mythic rares. I encourage you to read it. Of course you probably won't, so I'll just copy paste the juicy bit:
The bottom line is that the value of the content of an average booster goes up. This means that it's more profitable to buy packs than it is to buy singles. Wizards is pushing the local market nowadays (witnessed by the new Play program, and on the other hand by the cancellation of a pro tour and states = less focus on the tourney scene), and this seems to connect in that aspect. Smart.
This is all based off of assumption, though.
I can't imagine that the Planeswalkers in Alara will be more functional that the current planeswalkers for the fact that they'll be multi-colored. Garruk can be thrown in any deck that has green in it, while this new R/G planeswalker MUST have Red AND Green in the deck.
I still stand by my claim that prices will not shoot up as high as everyone think they will.
Ransac, cpa trash man
Why are we assuming that they'll be that much? The article had already stated that it's rarer to pull a specific Mythic rare than a specific Timeshifted card. Why must we assume that the rares will be bottom-line worth the same as the average of a highly utilized cycle of cards (for a few of them, anyway)?article said:
I can't imagine that the Planeswalkers in Alara will be more functional that the current planeswalkers for the fact that they'll be multi-colored. Garruk can be thrown in any deck that has green in it, while this new R/G planeswalker MUST have Red AND Green in the deck.
I still stand by my claim that prices will not shoot up as high as everyone think they will.
Ransac, cpa trash man
Killer Joe
New member
Wiz Co. isn't interested in the secondary market, right?Ransac said:
Killer Joe
New member
No, no, no! I did that wrong. I wasn't responding to you......I'm losing my mind. 
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EricBess
Guest
There is a huge flaw in his reasoning. He's assuming that the average value of a normal rare will remain the same as the average value of a normal rare in Llorowin. If the value of a Mythic rare increases, the value of a normal rare will decrease.Shabbaman said:
Assuming that he is correct that the "average value of a mythic rare" is twice the average value of a normal rare, or $18.80. 4.5 x 18.80 = 84.60. Now, his claim is that the average value of a rare is 3.64 (which I find hard to believe, but we'll go with it), or 3.64 * 36 in a box, so a box on average is 131.04 (see why I doubt it). Then, based on his assumptions, the value of a normal rare would, of necessity, drop. Let's see, 131.04 - 84.60 = 46.44 and 31.5 non-mythic rares, so the average value of a non-mythic rare would become $1.47.
Personally, I think his assumptions are faulty. StarCity might be selling rares for an "average" of 3.64, but I'm guessing there are certain rares that they are sitting on a huge glut of, so the true average value of a rare is significantly less. But since we are really talking only about "chase cards" anyway, we can use his numbers to make a point.
If, say, 2 of the mythic rares end up being "chase" rares and the other mythic rares end up being worth, say, $3.00, then to make the average value of a mythic rare $18.00, then the total value of all 15 mythic rares is $18 * 15 = 270, less the $36 for the 13 "lesser" mythic rares, and the value of the remaining two chase rares is over $100.
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BigBlue
Guest
A couple comments on the article...
1) One should almost never assume the past will be reflected in the future as far as "values" are concerned...
2) The "math" used to argue the point is comparing mythic rares in a future expansion to regular rares in the old scenario - this is not apples to apples thinking... so it's really not a fair arguement.
3) All mythic rares are not going to be planeswalkers... WotC does a lot of playtesting of their sets prior to release, but the population of players always finds diamonds in the rough - this will continue... what I mean by this is the Mythic Rare will not always be the best one - so you could get a "crap" rare in the Mythic slot based on their assumptions about which rares are worthy of "mythic" status.
Having said all that, I don't care too much about mythic rares... as I said before, they are all mythic to me since I usually only buy a box of boosters a year... I've never liked buying or selling cards - or trading them except in the old days when I was raped of cards while being the only set-builder in the playgroup... and those sets are pretty much worthless... (Revised, Fallen Empires, Ice Age, Homelands, Alliances, Mirage, Visions, & Weatherlight, I maybe got tempest too, but I think by then I'd stopped. I have a lot of the Dark, but never went for a set)... they meant something to me to have accomplished it, but that's about it...
I did buy a starter of Ravnica for $5.99 on clearance this week and pulled a foil rare (Cloudstone Curio - no idea of worth except that I'm going to use it)
1) One should almost never assume the past will be reflected in the future as far as "values" are concerned...
2) The "math" used to argue the point is comparing mythic rares in a future expansion to regular rares in the old scenario - this is not apples to apples thinking... so it's really not a fair arguement.
3) All mythic rares are not going to be planeswalkers... WotC does a lot of playtesting of their sets prior to release, but the population of players always finds diamonds in the rough - this will continue... what I mean by this is the Mythic Rare will not always be the best one - so you could get a "crap" rare in the Mythic slot based on their assumptions about which rares are worthy of "mythic" status.
Having said all that, I don't care too much about mythic rares... as I said before, they are all mythic to me since I usually only buy a box of boosters a year... I've never liked buying or selling cards - or trading them except in the old days when I was raped of cards while being the only set-builder in the playgroup... and those sets are pretty much worthless... (Revised, Fallen Empires, Ice Age, Homelands, Alliances, Mirage, Visions, & Weatherlight, I maybe got tempest too, but I think by then I'd stopped. I have a lot of the Dark, but never went for a set)... they meant something to me to have accomplished it, but that's about it...
I did buy a starter of Ravnica for $5.99 on clearance this week and pulled a foil rare (Cloudstone Curio - no idea of worth except that I'm going to use it)
B
BigBlue
Guest
EB makes another good point...
I'll add this to his point - the "value" of cards is based on supply & demand... If one Mythic rare becomes "the" card to own, there's less than 1% of all rares for that card... You'd have to purchase approx 120 packs to "guarantee" a chance of getting it (not counting foil which MaRo says actually have a better chance - ie not 1/8 of rares) - unless of course the card happens to be in an intro pack...
I'm going to step away from the "1 in 8" discussion - which is a mathematical model in itself and the more we extrapolate from it - the further we get from the truth...
Let's make this assumption instead...
I'm going to say that in one "sheet" of rares, they will include 1 each of the mythic rares and 2 each of the regular rares - this could be flawed, but we'll go with it for now.
This makes a sheet of 121 cards - (106 regular rares and 15 mythic ones)... as I recall they did make the sheets 11x11 and so it's probably an accurate assumption.
Each mythic rare will appear once in every 121 packs... if it becomes the chase card, it'll be more like a revised rare since they had 120(ish) rares there too... if memory serves during that print run, the best rares ran about $25... with inflation - and booster packs going up in cost, you can expect that value to be higher... maybe $50-$75 or more depending...
MaRo said one other thing which will probably limit this value somewhat too... the "mythic" rares will be where they put the "Legendary" things... this means players won't necessarilly chase 4 of them... unless it's truly amazing... He didn't say all Mythic Rares would be legends... not needing 4 of them will hold down the value a bit...
I'm quite intrigued by the comment he made about foil mythic rares being more likely than non-foil ones... this implies they use a different print size or something...
I'll add this to his point - the "value" of cards is based on supply & demand... If one Mythic rare becomes "the" card to own, there's less than 1% of all rares for that card... You'd have to purchase approx 120 packs to "guarantee" a chance of getting it (not counting foil which MaRo says actually have a better chance - ie not 1/8 of rares) - unless of course the card happens to be in an intro pack...
I'm going to step away from the "1 in 8" discussion - which is a mathematical model in itself and the more we extrapolate from it - the further we get from the truth...
Let's make this assumption instead...
I'm going to say that in one "sheet" of rares, they will include 1 each of the mythic rares and 2 each of the regular rares - this could be flawed, but we'll go with it for now.
This makes a sheet of 121 cards - (106 regular rares and 15 mythic ones)... as I recall they did make the sheets 11x11 and so it's probably an accurate assumption.
Each mythic rare will appear once in every 121 packs... if it becomes the chase card, it'll be more like a revised rare since they had 120(ish) rares there too... if memory serves during that print run, the best rares ran about $25... with inflation - and booster packs going up in cost, you can expect that value to be higher... maybe $50-$75 or more depending...
MaRo said one other thing which will probably limit this value somewhat too... the "mythic" rares will be where they put the "Legendary" things... this means players won't necessarilly chase 4 of them... unless it's truly amazing... He didn't say all Mythic Rares would be legends... not needing 4 of them will hold down the value a bit...
I'm quite intrigued by the comment he made about foil mythic rares being more likely than non-foil ones... this implies they use a different print size or something...
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BigBlue
Guest
hehe.... it was at ShopKo (discount store like Wal-Mart)... I was walking out and they have a display of football cards etc which usually has MtG (at higher prices than normal), but they had a small display of discounted "Theme Decks", all from Ravnica (I bought 2 of them too)... One of the Theme decks was really a tournament pack... a couple of them include core theme decks (which I didn't pick up since they only hold 40 cards and I prefer black bordered new things over white border retreads).
I figured I'd have something I could give the boys in the theme decks... I was surprised the starter didn't have a foil land - guess that's cuz it has the foil rare...
The display was actually printed by WotC - had the pricing printed on the cardback (of the blister, not the cards themselves). Each of the decks has a black marker through the UPC - I'm guessing it's returned goods? I may look in Target next time I'm there since they also have a similar display...
I figured I'd have something I could give the boys in the theme decks... I was surprised the starter didn't have a foil land - guess that's cuz it has the foil rare...
The display was actually printed by WotC - had the pricing printed on the cardback (of the blister, not the cards themselves). Each of the decks has a black marker through the UPC - I'm guessing it's returned goods? I may look in Target next time I'm there since they also have a similar display...
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EricBess
Guest
BigBlue - You are correct that a sheet is 121 cards. The printer can "pull blanks" if needed, but that's more expensive. Some printers also do 110 card sheets (10x11), but those are often smaller cards (it's a different sized sheet).
Given the 53 normal rares and 15 mythic rares, I'm fairly certain that your assessment of the print run is correct.
Given the 53 normal rares and 15 mythic rares, I'm fairly certain that your assessment of the print run is correct.
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BigBlue
Guest
So, what do you make of this then?MaRo said:
Do they print fewer cards on a sheet of premium cards? (leave blanks as you suggest)
Or do they print completely different sheets for premiums? I guess I always figured they printed the same sheets for premium cards - they'd simply altered the process etc. to make them "foil".
Shabbaman
insert avatar here
I think you're right about rare devaluation, but I don't think it'll be because of the value of mythics. To collect playsets of mythics, you need to buy more packs that you do now (more than 0EricBess said:
). So I'd say the supply of normal rares will increase (more packs!), so the value will drop. Just a hunch.Anyway, you're right that the numbers are dodgy. But I think that if you look at the results with some margin of error taken in account you can still say that
A. A mythic rare won't be $100.
2. The averrage value of a box will increase.
I'm not sure if the final conclusion III is valid (you're better off buying boxes than singles), but that depends on the cards in the specific set anyway. To make it worthwile you need a decent number of chase rares, a low crap rare count and some decent uncommons.
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EricBess
Guest
That was my point. It's cause-effect. The value of rares goes down because there are more of a specific rare available compared to the number of mystic rares available.Shabbaman said:I think you're right about rare devaluation, but I don't think it'll be because of the value of mythics. To collect playsets of mythics, you need to buy more packs that you do now (more than 0
To be technical, it's not the "supply" that increases, it's the "availability". Since you have a set group that wants the cards, the price will tend to settle right around where just enough peple are willing to pay that price for the number of that card that is available.
I don't think I said that you were better off buying boxes than singles. I think you said that. Really, it depends on why you are buying. If you are ONLY buying to get a financial return on your investment, then you are better off not buying unless you have a shop where you can realistically sell singles at a slightly elevated price (Note:StarCity games "prices" are elevated compared to the "value" of a card because they need to make some profit).
The average value of cards from busting packs is always going to be less than you paid for it. You could certainly get lucky and have a box with a lot of higher-value cards, but the more boxes you open, the closer you will settle to "average".
As for a mythic rare hitting $100, I really think it depends on how many of the mythic rares people want. Maro's point about them being "epic characters" and not just chosen because they are the most tournament playable cards is intentional. If all 15 epic rares were good, people would just buy enough packs that they could just trade for the ones they don't open themselves.
On the other hand, if only 1 of the epic rares is worth having (in terms of tournament playability) and you need 4 of that card, then that card could easily be worth over $100.
I don't see how you can say that the average value of a box will increase. Market forces keep that from happening. Law of demand - if the average value of a box is above a certain level, more people will buy boxes. The more boxes that are opened, the more cards there are on the market, so the value of the cards decreases. In theory, it stabilizes at about the same level everytime.
The only things that can truely change the value of the box are 1) an influx of high-end players who are willing to pay more, 2) a egress of low-end players who didn't want to pay, or 3) WotC limiting the amount of product available through shortage (Alliances - I'm looking at you).
I suppose it's possible that possibility #2 will happen given the new strategy, but realistically, that's the only way the value of a box is going to increase.
Note - I think you might be trying to say something else, however. If you are trying to get a playable set of cards, then the percentage of playable cards in the set makes a difference. In other words, if you want 75% of the rares in a set, buy a box because you are going to get plenty of cards that you want. When you get down to the last two Mystic Rares that you are looking for, buying them as singles is going to be a much better option.